Time is running out to reach the climate targets which have been set. It is important to demonstrate that climate control is working, but this requires not only innovative input – both of a technical and social nature – but also the rapid spread or diffusion of innovation. The interaction of different approaches, technologies and systems in climate control and in the energy transition is the basis for innovative strategies which will break new ground and uncover fresh scope for adding value. The remit of the ZSW also includes evaluating the ways to market for technological innovations and their potential economic effects based on practical analyses, feasibility studies and scenarios for technology diffusion. The focus might be on effects on employment, for example, or changes in value added structures. The ZSW is leading the way in this field – as expressed in various initiatives like the development of technology road maps.
The ability to achieve the climate control targets by 2050 depends on the rapid spread of available technologies for the use of renewable sources of energy but also on the widespread use of new and innovative technologies in the future. According to an IEA study, almost half of the decreases in emissions in 2050 will come from technologies which are currently still at the demonstration or prototype phase. The percentage of reductions in emissions from technologies which are still being developed today is even higher in heavy industry and long-haul traffic (https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050). This means that technological innovations play a key role for a climate-neutral society. Broad social acceptance is an essential factor for the successful dissemination of innovative energy transition technologies. The holistic view must include all the key players in the innovation system, extending the field of vision to research bodies and enterprises as providers of innovations alongside the adopters and users of innovations, but also to the government which put the underlying conditions, political framework and incentives in place or is itself a user.
The ZSW is grappling with various questions on the subject of innovation management. What is the route from the raw idea to the successful product? Which factors are pushing forward or slowing down the diffusion phase of a new technology? How does the innovation system work in the field of technology under consideration? These are just some examples of the many questions which we are seeking to answer, drawing as we do so on a broad range of approaches in research and consulting, such as patent analysis, agent-based simulation, econometrics, monitoring methods and network analysis.
When it comes to bringing an innovation to market, one important requirement for success is a knowledge of the competitive environment. A global perspective is relevant for the marketing of green technologies, such as the climate-neutral production of hydrogen. In addition to competing technical solutions (e.g. green versus blue hydrogen), it is necessary to analyse the conditions of use in different countries and in various parts of the world as well as the key players. The maturity of the technology, the expansion in costs and the potential for development must all be taken into account for alternative technical solutions. Analysing patents is one example of how to go about gleaning information about the level of commercial viability and the prospects for further technological development as well as about the work being undertaken by relevant stakeholders. There are various matters to check when analysing different countries, such as verifying whether the basic prerequisites are in place for the successful market launch of innovations. The potential for the use of renewable sources of energy, the degree of political stability and the availability of skilled workers are of interest in this regard. When analysing drivers of growth, the task is to identify the most important players who are actively encouraging the use and spread of new technologies – such as the introduction and promotion of hydrogen as an energy source through the adoption of a hydrogen strategy or hydrogen road map in various countries.
The technical developments carried out at the ZSW and the technological know-how in the various specialist fields enable the System Analysis department to conduct informed analyses of the development in technology. Examples include work on the projects "Energy Transition Navigation System (eNavi)" (“Energiewende-Navigationssystem (eNavi)”) and the countdown to structural change in the automotive sector with the “Technology Calendar” (“Technologiekalender Strukturwandel Automobil Baden-Württemberg (TKBW)”). The eNavi project involved gathering and charting information on the existing technology base along with ongoing technology developments in the context of the energy transition. Detailed technology profiles were drawn up to this end.
Set against the backdrop of the profound change in the automotive industry, the TKBW project was a joint undertaking which resulted in the development of a decision-making tool designed to help small and medium-sized companies to make strategic decisions about their product portfolio. The future development of alternative drive technologies and their components were charted in road maps in chronological order in the course of the project. The new developments in traction batteries and fuel cells were studied along with the production and distribution of hydrogen and the production of synthetic fuels. The spotlight was on the current state of technical development, exploring the technology trends which exist and forecasting which of these technologies are likely to be established and when. This helps to identify development paths, allowing companies to make strategic moves and get into line with future market needs.
Politicians need sound scientific advice, reliable facts and impartial data on which to base their decisions on energy policy and in order to put effective climate measures in place. They must be informed about technologies which are already available and under development, and due precision is required when analysing their technical and economic development potential and their future impact in the energy system. The evaluation of the economic effects is a major field of interest at the ZSW based on analyses of technical potential, feasibility studies and relevant scenarios. The focus, for example, is on changes in value added structures triggered by the energy transition and the associated effects on employment. The methods developed by the ZSW can be applied to the assessment of the situation in Germany, Europe and worldwide. Potential markets for companies in Baden-Württemberg were studied in various projects, identifying scope for generating sales, adding value and creating jobs in connection with the production of green hydrogen through electrolysis or with the construction of plants for the production of climate-neutral synthetic fuels. Politicians need sound scientific advice, reliable facts and impartial data on which to base their decisions on energy policy and in order to put effective climate measures in place. They must be informed about technologies which are already available and under development, and due precision is required when analysing their technical and economic development potential and their future impact in the energy system. The evaluation of the economic effects is a major field of interest at the ZSW based on analyses of technical potential, feasibility studies and relevant scenarios. The focus, for example, is on changes in value added structures triggered by the energy transition and the associated effects on employment. The methods developed by the ZSW can be applied to the assessment of the situation in Germany, Europe and worldwide. Potential markets for companies in Baden-Württemberg were studied in various projects, identifying scope for generating sales, adding value and creating jobs in connection with the production of green hydrogen through electrolysis or with the construction of plants for the production of climate-neutral synthetic fuels.
